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Robert Kaplan Education. (2012) 'The Revenge of Geography What the Map Tells Us About Coming Conflicts and the Battle Against Fate.'

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Russia 21, U.s. 10, United States 7, Berlin 7, Mexico 7, Asia 7, Syria 7, Israel 6, Vietnam 6, Us 5, Egypt 5, America 5, Bangladesh 4, Afghanistan 4, Iraq 4, Munich 4, Brazil 4, Europe 3, Saddam Hussein 3, Iran 3,
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  CSPAN    Book TV    Robert Kaplan  Education.  (2012) 'The Revenge of Geography  
   What the Map Tells Us About Coming Conflicts and the Battle...  

    December 26, 2012
    12:45 - 2:00am EST  

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he had a fury after he took that hit in 2010 he had a theory that he could make the race of choice and not just between him and bent romney but a choice between the ideology and different approaches to government and different sets of divisions and values and everything he did in that timeframe he kept trying to tethered to this big idea and when i wrote to the book of course we didn't know how things would end up on november 6, 2012, but i looked at how she developed the governing strategy, and they're really culminated in november, so this is the back story to what happened in this presidential campaign. >> david korn, showdown is the most recent book and we are here at the national press club. robert discusses the role that geography has played in shaping the defense and talks about the role that it plays in the future. this is about ten minutes.
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>> good evening, welcome and thank you for joining us. my name is richard fontaine. i'm the president for the center of new american security. it's a pleasure to welcome you all here to celebrate the publication of robert kaplan's new book the reason geography what they tell us about the coming conflict in the battle against the state. i've heard it said before that you all very great author by reading his books not by buying them -- they will be sold on the stage in this room back here. bald kaplan's work is known no doubt why this audience. he's been a senior fellow and in march of 2008 a foreign correspondent for the atlantic for about a quarter of a century and is currently the chief geopolitical analyst. i first became acquainted with his writing during his book with
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traces of history of the tight midwesterners living and working in the middle east. and since that book, the very titles of his work goes to the coming anarchy have provoked the debate. the recent book of american power has become acquired reading by those interested in the strategic competition in the coming decades. as i've gotten to know him over the past few years i've learned he's not only a superb journalist, scholar and thinker but also a warm and wonderful human being and he demonstrates a truly remarkable intellectual curiosity. i believe that we are the only to that decided together to review in our spare time. that's true. now he graces us with his new book the revenge of geography and he argues and i quote counter intuitive though it may seem the way they dressed with a seven and the instantaneous news is to rediscover something
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basic. the special representation of humanity divisions, possibilities and constraints the massive feeds us to the questions. it was a provocative argument and one that we will examine in some detail in tonight's conversation. joining in that conversation is david ignatius, one of the nation's strategic thinkers and his own right. a columnist for "the washington post," david is a renowned writer of fiction and nonfiction and is later during his most recent string of best-selling works of spy fiction. david is well known for his command of international affairs and his keen insight into the working of government and other factors. with these two gentlemen, we're poised for an illuminating an intriguing conversation about the world, the future and revenge of geography. bald and david, over to you. >> thank you. i think you're probably not supposed to see this as a serious moderator, but i love
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this book. it's embarrassing how architect it is and how many post its mouth i put not to flatter the teacher but because i really liked it. i'm going to try to walk the audience through this. we have bob walk the audience through and i would like to start with a provocative opening comment that you make. you set my reporting over three decades has convinced me that we all need to recover a sensibility of time and space that has been lost in the information age when the molders of public opinion - against the hours that will to let them talk about the distinguished your times columnist tom friedman is labeled a flout world. instead little interest to readers to recruit decidedly unfashionable figures who will push of a heart against the notion that geography and a longer matters.
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so i want to just ask you to start with the basics of geography and tell us why the matter so decisively in the world. this is a pablumized by tom friedman's work greatly is what we can do is all the things. what i'm doing is saying find that human agency, that's fighting against things but what i'm showing you in this book is the other side, i'm not disagreeing with what they said but should i take back to the formidable barriers which if you do not respect you can never
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overcome. chief among those for billable. if you want to know about a country rather than the deep leaders, their policies, look at the map. the east coast of the who was jam packed with great natural harbor. now the whole coast of a4a, bill whole resource rich tempers on that would settle the time of the european enlightenment and with more miles of inland waterways throwing at a convenient east west fashion
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than the waterways combined. so i am saying that americans are important not only because of our ideals and our democracy, but because of where we have to live as well. so that's why these things like mountains matters. the himalayas matter. they've allowed india and china to develop into a completely distinct world civilizations without having much to do with each other for long-term history. let's take that image that you offered of america, this amazingly simple geographic place with all of these natural harbors and rivers that run the right way but that was true for thousands of years and didn't leave to the development to rate
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civilization and european civilization and began to make powerful use of those the geographical advantages are obvious, so help us think about why it's geography that we should focus on as opposed to the cultural or civilization will aspect. >> that was due to the development of the failing chips which enable the croswell landed voyages, so that development of technology while it is short in distance it did not negate, it made it more important because it opened up a whole new geography and the world trade system cultural and economics flow from the geography because what is culture? it is the accumulated experience
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of a specific people on may specifically and skate over hundreds of thousands of years that leads to tradition and habits that can be identifiable. one of the places i've always considered to have the most deeply denzel identifiable culture shock is remaining. you know, nobody can admit there's a specific romanian culture that's been formed by the consul let between innovators coming from central europe and those coming from the plateau which has fostered a suspicious negotiation and character they can see right of into the politics in bucharest to this day and i can go to every country, not every but many countries and talk about but. >> talk for a moment about germany. one of the images germany has
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natural boundaries to the north and south with the alps and further burden the east and the west is flat plains, so germany
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had a war over the century with germany or france or that area and poland and because germany was a continental power sandwiched between the maritime europe on one hand and the heartland towards the other it was always problematic which we it would go and how it would develop. i can across this book by accident in early 1989. the berlin fall with -- berlin wall would fall but november. it had occurred to me after reading this book and other books that the berlin wall or the dividing line between eastern and western germany was one. creation of german history that would reinvested soften different territory always in the future so today we have a united germany that trades
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immensely with poland and has had a wretch most wall -- to approach what and where the european union and the nato or meant to keep russia out and the germans down now they are triumphant economically. germany may not have the solution to every economic problem but to berlin is the point of arbitration for all of them so the question arises and this goes back to the geography with russia needing the buffer zone in eastern europe remember the collapse didn't indian security facing ray it faced invasions' with will lead vehicle lithuanians, french, german throughout history. so we're back with a regional
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power flashed with natural gas. a rich and wealthy germany, poland between them that has -- >> it has gas under that many get an energy power in the century. this is living in geography. your argument about russia and russia's in security would be that it's too flat. half the world's longitudes but it's indefensible, it runs north, south so they don't unite the country and had less people than bangladesh. 141 million people, bangladesh has more. so vladimir putin sent up near imperialism on the deepak geographical and security and that's how we should understand not as a madman hour to
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totalitarian but it's a very traditional autocrat. >> one of the interesting hinges of this book is your discussion about the fall of the berlin wall, and if i read it right, you say that it may appear optimists. it made us to convinced that himeno agencies our system of democracy, system of free markets would have the transforming power. >> talk about that and take that story through the 1980's and into the 90's. >> the fall of the berlin wall eliminated constraints. we thought because we can get to the red army out of eastern europe it suddenly with a transforming effect in the middle east and sub-saharan africa that the world would not open, it would be open for democracy. democracy would come in all those places but it would be a long time who and certain
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stories hit. this was the genesis for the book. i saw how the u.s. military particularly the air force defeated geography in the balkans. it turns out the army did well despite of, and the successful conclusion to the war in bosnia and kosovo were a factor in allowing nato to expand to the black sea although nobody really wrote to that. and what is really the success of the balkans and a panel and we were bloodied to bits in somalia that made people think we can do anything. and that's when geography got its revenge in the mountains and the desert sahara and afghanistan because the transformative moment for me i was embedded with the first battalion of the marine.
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en and coo eight in march of 2004 we were making an overland journey with several hundred miles to fallujah and it wasn't yet on the news, the battle of fallujah was still a month away, the first battle of fallujah and all we did this transport one marine battalion from one place to another, it wasn't particularly dangerous, but the statistics were absolutely immense. gas stations, mountains of water models, tool kits, the meals ready to eat. it was just immense logistical exercise to get the men and women in a material from kuwait to fallujah without any finding and you saw how the distance matters how you couldn't defeat distance through the latest technology.
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>> might be interesting for this audience a few personal life is the story of iraq and talk about your own views. this is a place you knew that you traveled in the 1980's and the time of saddam hussein. you were a supporter of the war. explain why. and then i found some of the most wrenching facets of the book and discussions about what a disaster the iraq war met approved for every party in the united states most of all the iraqis. >> i knew iraq intimately in the 1980's as a reporter. i covered the war it was like a prison yard let up under saddam hussein. it was so suffocating that i can compare it to no place in the
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arab world about romania which i also knew to read too don't believe to go from saddam hussein's five rap to syria is like coming up from liberal humanists because we tend to say all dictators are bad, all democrats are good, you know, we eliminate and eraser distinctions and it's the distinctions that give the complexity we need to understand the world, and yet they ran a brutal dictatorship that was nothing like saddam hussein. and i had my passport taken away for ten days while the iraqi authorities when i was in kurdistan that time i was very near dayton nervous it i got back from the airport before i left and i was a journalist that got too close to my story and i was intent on eliminating saddam hussein. i believe like a lot of people
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in different western countries in the world and on both sides of the aisle that there was wmd. but more importantly, i believe the regime is suffocating and brutal and you couldn't trust it. you have to assume that it existed. the war turned out. i'm not a fatalist what we had a different strategies it could have been different. we cannot say that it wouldn't matter no matter what we did put on the other hand, a lot of the mistakes we made were implicit on the hubris of the concession, and because we can play counterfactual all we want, but at the end of the day you are stuck with the fact that you have and you have to deal with them. >> so almost 5,000 americans did, perhaps hundreds of thousands of iraqis killed and a
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trillion dollars in cost. you said even if iraq, even if everything turned out great and iraq somehow became an american ally and quote space it would still hard and this struck me come iraq underlined a key element in the mind-set of some of the projection of american power always had a moral result so it is an argument that iraq was fundamentally immoral. >> even the democracies that have the best intentions can take actions that have in morrill results depending on how they carry it out and how well they think things through not just one step in advance but
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five moves ahead of the time. that's why this gets me to a discussion later on in the book about the realism and what i say is what israel is on? it is more the sensibility than a philosophy. it's about you recognize interest overvalues because if you recognize interest you will be very careful about where you get involved overseas and if you recognize interest you will respect the interest of other nations and their allies compromise. whereas if you make the war out of the values purely coming you are liable to demonize your opponent as an immoral simply because he disagrees with you on the values and therein lies the war and the conflict and precisely because the realists expect conflict and they are less likely to react to it.
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also they valued the order of freedom because without a semblance of order, freedom doesn't mean anything, people can't practice it in the first place and that is another thing i learned about iraq which is even the tyranny of saddam hussein as terrible as it was precisely because it was a tyranny and people could get around, and people's the daily life was predictable, you knew was not flout but in the state of anarchy which is what they defended to in 2006 and in 2007 there were no rules. >> you also talk about the governing and analyses if you will, the munich analogy that compromise is fatal, look at munich and how they led the second world -- world war and
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the vietnam analogy that argues the limits of power, the arguments that you are making on the vigor transforming the role of the day so very unfortunate results. you talk about foreign policy as being at least two ideas or and although she's in play and i would be interested -- i keep on thinking that you are a vietnam analogy by and we must stand tough but you wouldn't subscribe to that. >> it's a special representation in the first place which dominates the rest of the book and in vietnam i think you have
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to take them both together. you cannot be in munich or vietnam. munich is an ethnology that tends to thrive when the country has been in peace and prosperity for long enough it feels it can do anything. it feels it can intervene on behalf of subject and oppressed people around the world and it doesn't think about the cost it hasn't had to pay the cost for several decades now. vietnam is about taking care of one's own the and paying attention to how things can go wrong despite the best of intentions. if he were a total vietnam person you will be such a realist that would be crude you wouldn't have anything on the interest and to the nation requires ideals for the self identity to define itself. if you are only emunim person
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you will be intervening every time there's a massive human-rights. you will have troops in five different places so it's only when the two in our genes are put together that a stable policy can emerge that can get public support over the long term. >> let's talk -- i assure the audience is going to want to give questions about current affairs. we are in the middle of a week in which we are seeing just how unstable this great big part of the world in the middle east can be. we had to the violence extending as far as bangladesh and i wonder through the lens that you have developed in the book, the analytical approach, what you say to policymakers as they try to figure out how to respond to an islamic world is just
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exploding with vinegar and instability. >> i would say that communications technology has collapsed but rather than the eight geography is in its preciousness as now you have people in indonesia that care about what they did interrupting the flotilla and you have crawled in bangladesh and i'm sure tomorrow we may see in malaysia and indonesia and elsewhere enraged about the movie a was made in california but while rage can spread around the world, it is a starting point. once you start to analyze what is likely to happen in egypt
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next and in syria you get different scenarios based on the legacy of geography. geography shows libya was in the country but a geographical expression with triple the oriented than tunisia or alexandria and egypt so it can only be governed through the totalitarian means and once that collapses though we have an elected government in tripoli it cannot project power beyond a greater aaa lisieux you have a problem with governor allin capacity and lydia that cannot deal with the crisis in egypt it's different. in egypt you have a country that has been an age-old cluster of civilization for thousands of years, a cohesive community beyond the normal where the government has far fewer the bureaucratic and institutional
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power even under the strenuous regime the government in libya has and they have an army, it has police forces, but its problem is political. can an islamic government take action against the islamic demonstrators? >> to take the other big issue that we are thinking about this week, iran is a big theme in your book. you talk in one chapter about that if it. the prime minister of israel sees iran very much in the munich and obligee's. having a nuclear weapons capability that could threaten the assistance and so it trolls conclusions from that. you have a broad historical and geographical analysis so i'm curious what you would say about
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the decisions that we are going to be looking at over the next few weeks, months, 12 to 18 months this is going to be resolved one way or another. >> it would run as a much more serious than saudi arabia or any in the arab world. there's been governments in persian speaking on the plateau going back. it's on the caspian and of the gulf of the greater of middle east. it has central asia on one hand. this regime may have trouble yet transform itself and it may be overthrown but there will always be iran. saudi arabia is more tenuous.
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it's the creation of a family. it's not synonymous with of the arabian peninsula. there are -- they've always had trouble keeping them in line being more cosmopolitan, so you know, in iran is very strongly institutionalized. it's not a one-man -- it has different centers of power that or against each other and a complex bureaucratic border. again the gift of the iranian plateau and the. i would say that our brand strategy has to be that the u.s. has been estranged for the third
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of the century between 48 and 72. at some point and this is what they think about there has to be the u.s.. does all of iran support the nuclear program but it's unclear all of iran supports nuclear weapons, you know, there's a distinction so the critical factor is what do we need to do to normalize relations with iraq. the answer may be a very strong military reaction if the weapon i'm not being an up piecer people long-range strategy roadmap custody mobilizing relations with iran. >> that's an interesting answer.
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it may well be that confrontation is the way and neither side feels it is able to achieve now. my time as your questioner is about to end the and the audience began, just ask a couple questions about the conclusions which are assessed and counter intuitive. one question is the u.s. should think about how to withdraw sensibly, its role after the second world war of its dominant power. that process. am i reading you write?
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>> you are. you had a chance to think about how over centuries can we make this as a dominant great power. roma was over by the barbarian tribes and that they have been inevitable in the long term but it wasn't in the way that it happened because. it makes sense that we need to gradually, organically off-road responsibility to like mine did others around the world rather than us covering the military burden. and let me talk about asia in this regard, china is developing this is normal because the land borders are more secure.
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in the manner that it hasn't had previously. does the u.s. continue to dominate the western pacific, the navy and air force to the same degree that it did throughout the cold war in the post cold war the philippines and australia in particular to bear some of the burden. that's what i mean by an empire. i'm going to let the audience discover for your questions with the major conclusion of the book is the latest want to ask you before we turn it over what you -- you are walking away from
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america's historical a central role of the superpower, and you are talking about inevitable, necessary, a decline, and how would you respond. they want the american influence to extend long into the decade that they cannot do that bearing the same level of burden. of vladimir putin against china at the same time that what countries like vietnam and the philippines drag us into a war with china, over the sea is so azoff plater balancing triet in any case, the u.s. has so much oil deposits in texas,
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louisiana, oklahoma or other places i can name but we are doing to be -- because of energy reserves we are going to be a significant power for decades to come in any case, now is to get allies and others like minded to do more. >> this book has on the cover a blurb from henry kissinger. so,. keep your questions brief and identify yourself, yes, sir. there is a hand up right there. yes? >> yes, hello. i wanted to ask about russia because against security that has been used, the argument has
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been employed to the time period what about the interest of the country's a around russia that are impacted by those aleutian needs for security. this russian need for in security goes back for decades. but vladimir putin isn't trying to create the warsaw pact. to read the limited invasion of georgia is about all he can muster. russia lacks the military band with. swedish banks are hookin' bull
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tisch with a british military developing yes the russians are trying to acquire electricity grids and other infrastructure in banks and syrup now that the e.u., the and european union waxen financial capacity. so, russia is not coming back as the former soviet union. for the negotiation and arming our allies. and particularly why do the polls and the romanians go along with us on missions in iraq and afghanistan? the forces in sub-saharan africa not because they support
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everything we do. it's because we, the polls and the romanians and the others know that. yes, in the first row, please. >> [inaudible] >> i.t. dewitt like a microphone because this is being recorded in the broadcast. >> department of geography. the first question to you is the has been some territorial disputes of china, japan, south korea, so what is your feeling, what is meant to have been.
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did you ask the u.s.. the ec, the south china, the sea of japan is in the 50's, 60's and 70's, all of these countries were internally focused. they were developing their own economies, their own national capacities, you know, their own military is. they're coming on line as a significant power in the 1970's, and it was under him that developed into a significant power. what's happened now is all these countries have developed. and because they have developed,
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they now have the ability to project power around words into the blue territorial soil that they claim. they didn't have this capacity before. so now we are seeing conflicts about islands in the geographical features that are below water and high tide that we never saw before. people say has everyone gone crazy in east asia? no, every once developed, and now they have military's command there's a conflict in -- and they've developed the navy and air force and there is this conflict and -- there's a conflict of for the geographical space. it's a battle for geographical space and not about ideas. there are no ideas involved here. this is about territory, status, national status. people fought in europe that nationalism was out of fashion
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that's not what i see in east asia. in east asia i see the national as a less feisty and healthy. estimate that one of the interesting things is the idea about globalization and the end of national boundaries are. >> yes, sir. second row. >> thank you very much. >> [inaudible] based in lebanon. can you give an interpretation live there was a double veto by russia and china with regards to the syrians? and that if ito was three times over. you think there is any impact of the events in libya, egypt, yemen and all the others on the approach of this administration to our city interests?
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>> let me say that, you know, china is a bit far, but russia has interests in syria. you know, the way the russians see it is they've already suffered a steadfast with this overthrow of gadhafi and we were still closer to moscow at the time and much closer than to the united states. syria -- russia cannot be happy about the possible loss of another ally in the middle east. russia has a certain degree of interest in a naval base. you know, it's perch in the mediterranean and more importantly, russia knows and putin knows the central asia is park currently a powder keg that gets much less news than it deserves, and you thought the arab spring was tumultuous and
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occasionally violent, you were going to love central asia because central asia didn't have the european liberalizing effect on the intellectual like the arab world which is a proximate to europe. it had its intelligence the a completely polarized by stalin and i can go on and on. central asia could be a tinderbox and the last thing that russia wants to see is an islamic state in syria that becomes a model for symbol for anything that might erupt in central asia social's interest in trying to keep in power if all possible is their understandable interest from their legitimate interest that stems from russia's geographical situation.
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>> we of so many hands and apologize but we should but other folks ask questions. yes, please. ..
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>> it was a natural occurrence that would have happened the matter what it was called. because it refers to two ground wars in one part of the world. in previous decades and centuries, they often retreated into semi isolationism. the korean war gave truman the political space needed to send troops back to europe. we did not want to retreat
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into semi isolationism. it should be a policy after the berlin wall fell but saddam hussein invaded kuwait, we got involved, the army and navy were involved with the no-fly zone over iraq. said the iraq war in afghanistan. soviet-backed at 1989. stage so we are back at 1989. so now we show that we are engaged. with the pacific, it implies you can turn your attention away from the know least. from the middle east.
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but you really cannot. that is the challenge with the pivot. >> talk about geographic divides, you make reference to the u.s. and mexico. what about transnational criminal organizations, to influence of radical extremist, iran into venezuela, and a large border that is flat? >> guest: i and my book talking about mexico. natalie china and the middle east but mexico is on the same level of importance.
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latin history is moving north demographically. and the average honduran is 20 also mexican, the american is 37. the young deer population is growing faster and we have more latin speaking people in our society. back of a 20th-century it was wrote with the artificial border come as our border is between highly developed society and an economically less developed, the border does not stayed stable but moose toward the less developed society to overcome the more developed side. mexico has seen 50,000
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deaths since 2006, a 2.5 times the death of syria over six years. most of those was the northern third of the country against the border. but violence has dropped because cartels are consolidating control to set up an honest to goodness base close to the border. the way mexico develops as a society will impact us more than iraq for afghanistan's. >> to bush on the policy that is the other major conclusion that that southern border is crucial
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but in light on that the pressure moves with the border moving northward what is the policy of the united states? >> we have to be careful about intervening. we fought a war with mexico. general pershing, everything has to go through a tight to diplomatic filter. there is more we can do to help the mexican authorities then what we have done. field of manpower in the united states is the time we can devote to a problem. why we cannot have two wars at once.
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would give south china sea view reps with the no-fly zone? we have trouble on that. if maurer decision makers with spend time on the mexico problem we may come out with more innovative ways. it is one of the most leading economies. it is not a country to categorize but incredibly dynamic and dysfunctional at the same time. >> from the west african foundation, another region we have spotted is west africa.
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terrorism, drug trafficking, poverty comment on and on. looked at the map what do you see? >> sub-saharan in general that after new growth and of bad news in the 1990's, african economic growth has been about six or 7%. subtract 2% of population growth that makes a difference but also no manufacturing developing the course of sahara. south africa is the exception. and it shows the country's are out of the woods. with west africa, the war and the rebellion has burned out. then but to stabilize those
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institutions best under economic base, that may come later. with the ivory coast only through 15 months ago. it might be that china and england negative are expensive for a the textile manufacturers. who is the next i never? it is possible they could become the new destination for a textile production production, provide jobs jobs, while i wrote a pessimistic article in 1994, they played out in the
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late 90's. but now i see it on the positive trend. >> they seem to agree. >> the rule of law committee for the ocean. it is said that geography is one of the most important factors because it is the most permanent. we saw the arctic icecap drop and it appears to be opening more this session. what does this trend mean in a generation for russia and canada? >> i did go to zero chapters
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to it in the book. he is very provocative. in the middle of roberto they predicted china who was our ally would become our adversary geographically. also he said united europe could be a competitor for the united states. with the arctic icecap, if the arctic was open for shipping and a friend would sail the northwest passage up green land and across canada that shipping in the
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northern arctic that could provide alternative routes that is somewhat less of an emphasis of the indian ocean. to bring russia closer to america fundamentally. it would make canada significant you have shale guest, the tar sand and the hydropower resources with open arctic it would be that much more significant. >> i would like to offer a
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quick comment. to go through another level off from the decade. but with the change with syria. but to on burden of responsibility, which countries do you envision south america, africa, you wrote about india obviously. in to be applied in and share our objectives? >> interesting brazil has carved out the identity.
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they always have trouble making arrangements to do missions of brazil. they are more standoffish. because of geography in west africa over the force of a decade so brazil would not be cost file to the united states but it would be independent with its own point* of view. says that may lead to argentina and develop their balance against brazil. it is strategic about the united states has gotten
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since the cold wear to asia -- from the rise of the cold war. it has been over hyped but within ds 2012 it is the enormous development. of the indian policy establishment would reject it like a diseased germ. with india aware it is on the map with the economic and military rise is against china. we should not get
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concessions but anchorage development in a way that we can. >> with your presentation of your book with the u.s. and everything here is absolutely clear. speenine. [laughter] could you talk about israel?
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a country that exist? >> yes. russia and america to have complete the geographical perspective is in a different situation so the >> yes. russia and america to have complete the geographical perspective is in a different situation so the interest is different and they often clash. we have to recognize we do not have the ideological disagreements today as we did during the soviet union. this is still the philosophical difference but not nearly as distant as the cold war. as a the way to imply russia in many parts of
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eurasia, israel exist in defiance so without a firm territorial base as a reconstituted the country. with the geography, israel has a corridor extended from televisa to jerusalem. maybe a small country the size of new jersey. it cannot absorb not even one nuclear strike. we can use st. louis but the west's will go on as a country. we would be wrecked memorial's. [laughter] russia made similar calculations but israelis cannot. who is not killed would have
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cancer rates because of the size of the country. but at the heart of the fact they have to have a different redline. it is tragic but all of our interest overlap with significant extent but not total extent. their are issues for they are different than ours. but in the israeli response willoughby logical for them to westernize.
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i think i ran's real power where it is now with nuclear capacity, but does not have the weapon. or the enriched uranium. but once it web devices it will be insecure 24 hours per day. quote pleaded do with six or eight low-quality weapons? there would be no second strike capability. iran would be much more insecure.
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>> and preaching to the choir i wonder what can be done. but what can reawaken and americans to the reality is that you so skillfully displayed i will conclude on that point*. to say it could be fashionable what books sold the most? military history. they're often badly reviewed
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but they sell much because they implicitly grasp ancient history is military history. with these natural inclination to be fascinated with the map. i would love the a a a road map with some of trip-tik that they do not make any more. >> you are optimistic with immigration laws. to talk about the best and brightest higher do you expect to get there? i think we are. as the persian friends in
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oregon the ultimate result of the iranian revolution in to get business degrees and did well but the stratum below that came to the united states. whenever there is an of people we get more. those changes so dramatically. diet, food, we hear becoming the international nation. [laughter] what a wonderful description.
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we have time for one last question. >> from global affairs, thank you for your time. a quick comment, the map tells us for the arab-israeli peace in relation to water scarcity issues? >> turkey has all the water with the middle level power. to discuss israel in four places this is where we come down to a geographic determinism. this is precious and is more precious and more in more
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people are on the disputed territory. ra to it achieved. what we have been preoccupied with iran and israeli settlement building is robust. it does not gterritory. rather sellers or the rising arab birthrate. it becomes harder and harder to it achieved. what we have been preoccupied with iran and israeli settlement building is robust. it does not get much news, but facts are on the ground it will be harder to reach a solution. i have not given policy recommendations. one that should be sure common-sense is what james baker showed so ably but to beat any era of the israeli peace the u.s. house to be
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involved in a pro-active way. >> as i am sure you have seen, it is a brilliant provocative book. could join me to thank bob. [applause]
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>> if we turn away from the needs of others we airliner sells the forces that bring us suffering. >> to be taken advantage of. >> obesity is nothing short of a public health crisis. >> but to tell me when they have their own agenda. >> it is a shame. >> they serve as a window on the past to what was going on with american women. >> the chief confidante. the only one in the world he can trust. >> many women who were first ladies were
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writers, journalists, books. >> in many cases more interesting as human beings than their husbands if only because there are first headforemost defined and limited with political ambitions. >> dolly was socially adopt and politically savvy. >> dolley madison but monroe hated it. >> you cannot rule without including what women want and have to contribute to. >> they were breathless and too much looking down a little too fast with a change of pace. >> probably the most tragic of all of the first lady's lady's, they never showed a the marriage. >> she later wrote in her memoir that said i never made any decision but i just
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told him what was important and when to present to. think about how much power that is. it is a lot. >> part of the battle of his cancer was to fight the feeder that accompanies the disease. >> she transformed the way we look at the bugaboo to make it possible for countless people to survive as a result. i don't know how the president's realistically have that kind of impact of the way we live our lives. >> walking around the white house grounds, i am constantly reminded of all of the people who have lived there before and all of the women. . .

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